The full rarity ladder, explained with the actual Steam renders of each tier instead of colour codes you have to memorise. Real drop odds, real market price bands, and the quirks that matter, like why Knife/Glove drops get their own gold-star tier and why Contraband is held by a single skin in the entire game.
Every photo on this page comes from our SkinsVault asset library, the same source we use across the site for skin imagery. Drop odds are pulled from publicly verified Valve case composition data. Market prices reflect May 2026 Steam Community Market floors.
Covert · ~0.64% per case
AWP | Dragon Lore
Mil-Spec up to Contraband, plus the gold-star knife and glove tier.
Roughly 4 in 5 openings land on the base tier.
Roughly 1 in 156 openings, where the iconic skins live.
The M4A4 | Howl, removed from the drop pool entirely.
One bar, one case, drawn at the real proportions. Covert and ★ Covert (Knives & Gloves) together account for under 1% of drops, which is why they are the hairlines at the right-hand end rather than anything you can read. Contraband is not on the bar at all, it cannot drop.
| Tier | Colour | Drop odds | Typical market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contraband | Red-orange (custom tier) | Not droppable, discontinued | $6,200 Factory New floor / pre-replacement copies clear $100K+ |
| Covert | Red | ~0.64% per case | $50 to $20,000+ depending on skin + wear |
| ★ Covert (Knives & Gloves) | Yellow / gold star | ~0.26% per case combined | $200 to $150,000+ depending on knife + pattern + wear |
| Classified | Pink / fuchsia | ~3.2% per case | $15 to $4,000+ depending on skin |
| Restricted | Blue / purple | ~16% per case | $2 to $50 in most cases |
| Mil-Spec | Blue | ~80% per case | $0.05 to $5 typically |
Note: drop odds shown are per case for standard cases. Some operation cases and souvenir packages use different composition tables. Sticker / capsule / graffiti drops follow their own separate rarity ladders not covered here.
The unique tier. Only one skin in the entire game holds Contraband rarity: the M4A4 | Howl. Originally released as Covert in the Huntsman Collection, the artwork was found to be IP-stolen, and Valve responded by replacing the art and elevating every existing copy to a brand-new Contraband tier. Removed from the drop pool. Existing copies trade as collectibles only.
Tier 1 of 6 · 1 example from the library
The top droppable tier. Roughly 1 in 156 case openings produces a Covert. This is where the iconic skins live, Dragon Lore, Fire Serpent, Vulcan, Asiimov, Wildfire, and where most of the visible value in the case-opening economy concentrates. Knife / glove drops are technically separate (~0.26%) but functionally also covert-tier in market terms.
Tier 2 of 6 · 6 examples from the library
Knives and gloves get their own special tier with the gold star prefix. The 0.26% covers ALL knife and glove drops combined across every model and finish, so the odds of a specific knife pattern (Karambit Fade, M9 Bayonet Doppler etc.) are much lower. Knife pattern grading (Fade %, Doppler phase, Marble Fade arrangement, Case Hardened pattern index) is the most active sub-economy in the entire CS2 market.
Tier 3 of 6 · 6 examples from the library
The tier just below Covert. Classified drops are roughly 5× more frequent than Covert and include the second-tier skins from each case, the AK-47 Bloodsport tier of finish on each weapon. The market premium for the most-loved Classified skins (AK Wild Lotus, M4A1-S Printstream, USP-S Kill Confirmed, AK Case Hardened) often rivals lower-end Coverts despite being technically a tier below.
Tier 4 of 6 · 5 examples from the library
The mid-tier. Roughly 1 in 6 case openings produces a Restricted. Familiar names that build the bulk of most players' inventories, AK-47 Redline, Glock-18 Water Elemental, FAMAS Roll Cage, AWP Mortis. Tradable, recognisable, but rarely chase-tier value individually.
Tier 5 of 6 · 4 examples from the library
The base tier. Roughly 4 in 5 case openings produce a Mil-Spec drop, the most common outcome by far. Mostly low-value finishes that exist to populate the inventory and keep the rarity ladder visible. Mil-Spec drops are the reason most case-opening sessions feel disappointing: the math is rigged toward this tier, and cashing out a Mil-Spec at market typically nets less than the case cost.
Tier 6 of 6 · 4 examples from the library
Souvenir versions of Cobblestone Collection skins (the source of Dragon Lore) carry tournament stickers + player autographs from the major events where they dropped. A Souvenir Dragon Lore with the right player + tournament combination has cleared $300,000+ at private auction, multiple times the regular Factory New version. Souvenir is a parallel market, not a separate rarity tier.
Any drop above Mil-Spec can roll with the StatTrak kill counter at lower odds (roughly 10% of drops at each tier). StatTrak versions are the same rarity but priced at 2-3× their non-StatTrak equivalents because the counter is part of the perceived value, especially on high-tier weapons used competitively (AK, AWP, M4 series).
Within Covert and Knife tiers, individual drops can be wildly different in market value depending on the procedural pattern that was rolled. Karambit Doppler Black Pearl vs Karambit Doppler Phase 4 are the same rarity tier; the Black Pearl can clear $14K while the Phase 4 sits at $700. Our knife patterns guide covers the full pattern-grading economy.
Every skin drops in one of five wear tiers (Factory New, Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn, Battle-Scarred) plus a precise numeric "float value" between 0.00 and 1.00. Lower floats inside Factory New are themselves a premium subset. Wear doesn't change rarity but adjusts price ±20% within a rarity band.
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