Tools / Case simulator
Real Valve drop rates. Real skins. Zero money. Run 100 opens through this sandbox and you'll feel the EV math in your gut. Then make an informed call about whether to spend cash on the real thing.
Drop rates: Mil-Spec 79.92% · Restricted 15.98% · Classified 3.20% · Covert 0.64% · Knife 0.26%. Skin values are approximate Steam Market snapshots from May 2026.
Flame Jörmungandr
Wicked Sick
BI83 Spectrum
Drop Me
Vent Rush
Fragments
Aerial
Meltdown
Winterized
Crazy 8
O.S.I.P.R.
Chromatic Aberration
Printstream
Ice Coaled
Doppler
Fade
Crimson Web
Flame Jörmungandr
Wicked Sick
BI83 Spectrum
Drop Me
Vent Rush
Fragments
Aerial
Meltdown
Winterized
Crazy 8
O.S.I.P.R.
Chromatic Aberration
Printstream
Ice Coaled
Doppler
Fade
Crimson Web
Flame Jörmungandr
Wicked Sick
BI83 Spectrum
Drop Me
Vent Rush
Fragments
Aerial
Meltdown
Winterized
Crazy 8
O.S.I.P.R.
Chromatic Aberration
Printstream
Ice Coaled
Doppler
Fade
Crimson Web
Flame Jörmungandr
Wicked Sick
BI83 Spectrum
Drop Me
Vent Rush
Fragments
Aerial
Meltdown
Winterized
How this simulator works
Each open is a two-stage roll. First we pick a rarity tier weighted by the published Valve drop rates: a Mil-Spec drops 79.92% of the time, a Restricted 15.98%, a Classified 3.20%, a Covert 0.64%, and a Knife or Special 0.26% of the time. Then we pick a specific skin uniformly at random from that case's pool inside that tier, exactly how the in-game system works.
We use Math.random() as the RNG, which is fine for a sandbox but isn't cryptographically provable. If you want to verify a roll on an actual gambling site, use our provably-fair verifier instead , it runs the same HMAC-SHA256 the site ran, in your browser.
Skin values are approximate Steam Community Market median prices for the Field-Tested wear, snapshot May 2026. They drift constantly. The simulator doesn't model wear / float, StatTrak, or souvenir variants, those would swing per-drop value but not the long-run expected value, which is what the session tally is really showing you.








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